10-1 professional MMA record, lightweight.
What the model believes nowWhat it believed at the timeUnderperformed the forecastRecord may have turned
Each bar: the share he earned against what the forecaster expected going in, up when he did better. Red is an underperformance, 0.2 or more below.
Each dash on the chart is the opponent, placed at what we now know they were worth that night. is the division's field, ranked 10th to 100th, dashed at its mean. A lighter column is a title reign. The pale band around the line is a rough range: from the fights alone, about two chances in three that the rating sat inside it. It is wide where fights were few or far apart.